Minor rantings and ravings on the Jays

Leaving the TV with the Jays up 7-0 on Monday night was wise on my part, as they proceeded to meltdown and lose, improbably, 8-7. Its been a string of lackluster and bad break games so far, so its bound to turn around.

Theres been much talk about how Aaron Hill is still struggling and we should part ways with him. Im not so inclined at the moment. Small sample size, but his line-drive % is back up to career norms (20%), and while his K rate is up, his contact numbers are still normal, and he seems to be having better zone judgement. I feel hes having bad sequences (lots of first pitch take, second pitch swings, on first pitch strikes, second pitch balls) that are getting him in 0-2 counts, and just more pure bad luck in the small sample – .200 BABIP despite everything else implying hes returning to 2009 levels. He probably ends in a medium between his 2009 and pre 2009 levels, but it will be an improvement over his flyball-happy 2010.

Brett Cecil has not looked like the pitcher of yesteryear, and the stats bear that out – hes shown reduced fastball velocity and an increased reliance on the slider. In any case, hitters have been sitting happy on the fastball and he has paid for it. Hopefully he will be looking better in future starts; its only been two so far.

And I must reverse my initial opinion of Edwin Encarnacion, or as as everyone “affectionately” calls him, E5. 4 errors, leading to a .600 FP so far, means I want Jayson Nix permanently planted in the hot corner until he becomes a jalapeno, even if his arm is pure noodle, rather than E5 just botching the throws anyways. Furthermore, while I like his approach at the plate, the AL has adjusted back to him, throwing more first pitch strikes and increasing the dose of breaking balls. E5 adjusts but slowly, and with Lawrie on the horizon I dont see the point in keeping him around any longer than is necessary (which would be half a season or less). As soon as he can be traded he should be.

Oh, and Bob Davidson? The state of California wants to revoke your drivers license for impaired vision. Bob Davidson – pissing Jays fans off since 1992.

Jays 6 – Twins 1: Some thoughts on Nix, Drabek

Jays win a well pitched game from Drabek, whose first win was a long time coming. I think refinement of his cutter and changeup have given him a chance to display more of the ability to be at least a mid-rotation starter. Until now, from what I saw and the numbers gave me some doubt, but today he pitched like a #3 or #2 starter.

 

I like the Jays acquisition of Jayson Nix, who I feel is underrated. He has the tweener issue of not being capable defensively enough to man SS. However, he has shown power in the past (26HR in ~600AB in ML), extreme patience (walked in winning run in , contact ability (.303 BA in 2008, AAA), and solid defense, particularly at 2B, and has some speed (10 for 12 in SB attempts in a half season in 2009). At any given time he has shown decent tools; if he can put them all together at once, he could be a very good, all around 2b.

Jays 13 – Twins 3: Opening Night 2011

What a way to start the 2011 season. Not having caught as much of the ST games as I would have liked, the Jays showed in the 1st inning some of the mentality that is being espoused by Farrell, and heres hoping it continues throughout the year, not just the high of opening night. The Jays have been historically excellent in the first game, so it bears some watching to see whether the energy and baseball smarts displayed today play up in the dog days of summer.

Right off the bat, the Jays executed a solid double steal. Even better, on a sac fly by Hill with the bases loaded, the Jays managed to move all their runners up – most spectacularly Lind (a red light runner – I call him the Albatross because of how he “flaps his wings’ – his elbows – when he runs hard) moving up from 1st to 2nd. It set the tone for the night as the Jays continued to play smart baseball at the dish, on the mound, running the basepaths, and in the field.

Some initial thoughts on the first day:

1. Arencibia looked a tad agressive with the bat, swinging at some pitches that looked out of the zone, but man was he dialed in with the 2 very solid HRs, espeically the first to straightaway centre. He was extremely hot his first ML game last year before going ice cold down the stretch, so heres hoping he makes the adjustment and continues to hit, as pitchers will begin to notice his aggressive tendencies. Defensively he was solid, and I loved his non-traditional positioning to catch Romero, a la Carlos Ruiz and his body of work with the Phils. I think defensively he will be fine, and as long as he keeps patient at the plate and works on that, he will be very good offensively as well, especially for a catcher. I think by years end he will more or less equal John Buck with us last year, and down the road will be an improvement.
2. Bautista picked up where he left off last year with a pulled blast to left, and a very patient approach at the plate. He wont replicate last years numbers, as he himself has admitted, but I think he will play his worth from the contract this year, 35+ HR easy, maybe even 40. It was clear when they announced the lineups that Bautista has taken on the leadership role in the clubhouse, and hes a more serious, and yet more fun, energizing, and outspoken leader than Wells, or Delgado before him, ever were. His contract will look great this year – will it look the same way at the tail-end in 2015?
3. Rajai Davis has serious wheels, and the new approach at the plate I think is legit. That being said, he is still too aggressive, especially for a leadoff hitter, though he has the insane bat speed and hand-eye co-ord to make up for it a bit by making a lot of contact. Hes not a long-run leadoff man in my book, and his arm looked weaker than I would have liked for CF, but he can hold down the fort, has value, and maybe is a trade chip of Gose can move quickly (who will  cover the inadequacies of Davis in the patience and arm department).
4. Lind looked much better with the bat. I dont think he will come all the way back to 2009, but he will be much closer to that form than last year’s.
5. Hill’s line drive double was a sigh of relief for me. After he got under the sac fly in the first, I was wondering how long Id have to wait to see him not get under a ball. Luckily it didnt take long, and his legs seemed to show no ill-effects of the quad injury. Rebounds in 2011.
6. EE – looked better with the glove at 3b, as per reports out of ST, and I think hes taken longer but adjusted to the AL with his bat. I think he breaks out this year.
7. Snider showed some legit speed on the basepaths, and his approach and swing looked improved from last year. Its not as good as he looked in the early goings in 2009, but he will be better than 2010. Not digging the mullet or stache though.
8. Rivera is arguably the only position player I want off this team. The sooner he gets going so we can trade him, the better. He doesnt fit with the system we have going in TO. Lawrie or Thames cant come fast enough.

Regarding the Twins, Pavano was rattled and acted like his Yankee days. Not a fan of him, his periperhals werent as supportive of his 17Wins last year. Was not crazy about Nishioka either. As for the Jays pitching, Villanneuva looked great ending the game, and hoping hes a solid pickup for this team long run.

Leafs 4 – Bruins 3 (OT): Getting Beaned in Beantown

Rough night for the Leafs in a very physical game; Lucic, McQuaid and others on the verge of busting gloves with Komisarek , Phaneuf, and the usual suspects. Lucic and Rosehill decide to try to turn it into UFC on ice in the 2nd (see below). Its no surprise that the Bruins sit 2nd in the NHL in fighting majors with 69 (Leafs are 10th with 47, and to contrast, the disciplined Red Wings are dead last with 11).

Penalties galore and opportunities with Reimer appearing a tad weak tonight, though Boston has peppered him. 27 SOG by the end of the 2nd, it could turn into a 40 shot night.

Have to admit, a good recovery by Reimer in the 3rd period and standing tall in the shootout. Kadri puts on some nifty moves for the goal on Tim Thomas, and I think Kadri has finally come into his own as a player and is ready to break camp with the Leafs in 2011-2012. (Though anyone notice, it was a carbon copy of nearly every good shootout goal hes had? –  just watch the links after the video to prove my point)

Red Wings 4 – Leafs 2: …and that’s that

A team riding a hot streak fell far short, in an effort reminiscent of that against Florida just some nights ago.

Detroit peppered Reimer early on, as the motown team outshot TO 15-9 in the first period. Reimer was ok but clearly not on his top form, as he gave up a weak winning goal, even if the Leafs were sloppy all night long with countless costly turnovers, and an ineffective powerplay.

The only thing the Leafs did appear to be good at was banging up the Red Wings – Rafalski and goalie Howard both sustained injuries that had them leave the game. Phaneufs slap shot to break the glass near the end of the 2nd proved perhaps to be the highlight for at times energetic, at times listless, but seemingly always disorganized Leafs team.

Its hard to imagine Toronto NOT out of the playoff picture. With 6 games in hand, the Leafs need at least 8 points – thats 4 wins (or 3 and 2OTLs, or etc) just to pass Buffalo as it stands, which has not only a 7pt lead but a game in hand. Good luck is pretty much the only words I have at this point.